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GNOSIS Sandpit on “Black Swan” Scenarios

June 6, 2023 @ 1:00 pm 5:00 pm

On 6 June, the GNOSIS network will be hosting a sandpit to address the Global Risk Continuum challenge that Darren McKnight proposed at the Black Swans event in late 2022.

Darren’s paper sought to address the probabilities associated with various potential risks to humanity, and this has the potential to contextualise the threats to sustained space operations.

Understanding these risks, and properly calculating their relative likelihood is key to developing the right mitigations, contingencies, and countermeasures.

Join our sandpit on 6 June, and help us to save the world!!!


13:00Introduction – a brief reminder of the event last Autumn, a summary of the paper that Darren Mc Knight has challenged us to “readdress”, and details of an international funding scheme that may help to pay for further effort on this topicStuart Eves – (SJE Space)
13:25UK Govt activities in this area, including the NSRA and NRRKevin McLoughlin, (BEIS)
13:50The insurance sector’s approach to some of these risk areasDavid Wade, (Atrium UW)
14:15Further details on the topic of natural space hazards discussed in the Black Swan WorkshopMassimiliano Vasile (Strathclyde)
15:10 The statistics of potential NEO impactsJay Tate (Spaceguard)
16:30Summary and next stepsStuart Eves – (SJE Space)